This year I admit that I am in a supreme disadvantage this year since in I have not seen most of the nominees this year. Therefore, most of my predictions are based on the awards the films have won prior to the ceremony and my hunchs. Because of this, I think I will change this come late February
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave. At this point it is either this or Gravity. The main reason why I think this will win, aside from being a masterpiece that deserves it (which seems like a secondary requirement for an award these days), is good old fashioned guilt. Remember this: the average Academy voter is a 65 year old white guy.
Best Director: Alfonso Caurón for Gravity. Again it is either him or Steve McQueen 12 Years a Slave. A popular hypothesis for these award shows is that the Best Director award is the "silver trophy; while the visual design of Gravity is amazing, some people understandably consider 12 Years a Slave to be the deeper film. But honestly, their work this year was so beautiful that I'm fine with either of them winning the award.
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze Her. I have not seen any of these films... my choice is based on the premise and the film's Golden Globe win for the same category. If a premise this weird can win awards then it is proof of how convincing the script must be.
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave. Anyone's game really, and I only saw12 Years a Slave so... I'm gonna lose this one.
Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave. I want to say Matthew McConaughey or Leonardo DiCaprio but Ejiofor was just beyond brilliant, not only do I think he will win but his performance will be studied for years to come.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine. It is probably the only lock of the season.
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave. I know Jared Leto has been taking all of the awards but come on, Fassbender was dynamite in 12 Years a Slave.
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle. This is only because she has so much clout at this point, she is becoming the Jean Harlow of the internet. That being said, Lupita Nyong'o's performance in 12 Years a Slave is a much more deserving nominee.
Best Animated Feature: Frozen. Gee I wonder what film is close to breaking a billion friggin dollars this year. I love the idea of Hayao Miyazaki winning for his film The Wind Rises since it is his last feature film, too bad that is not going to happen.
Best Foreign Film: The Great Beauty. What is more appealing to an Academy voter than an old man with a mid-life crisis. The Hunt has a chance to beat it aside from the fact that it stars Mads Mikkelsen aka "TV's Hannibal"; if history dictates anything, it is that Academy voters hate TV actors.
Best Documentary: The Act of Killing. There really is no other choice honestly; forget Best Documentary, The Act of Killing is easily one of the best films of the year. The only weakness it has is that it may not appeal to the "Academy" demographic like Dirty Wars or 20 Feet from Stardom.
Best Editing: Gravity. Absolutely seamless, tight as a drum, the fact that there was originally a series of subplots that were completely removed to maintain the plot is proof of this film's minimalist brilliance.
Best Cinematography: Gravity. Again 12 Years a Slave is very close, with many beautiful shot that contrast with the horror as well as many moments of brilliant visual metaphor. But Gravity is just one amazing shot after another, and by shots I mean 10 minute long epic ballets that
Best Production Design: 12 Years a Slave.
Best Visual Effects: Gravity.
Best Make-Up: The Lone Ranger. Not since Breakfast at Tiffanys has the use of--just kidding it's Dallas Buyers Club. Seriously, who the @#$% thought The Lone Ranger was the best of anything?
Best Costumes: American Hustle. Plunging necklines aside, it is probably the one award this film actually deserves.
Best Score: Gravity. If it does not win the sound nominations it will win here.
Best Song: "Let it Go" from Frozen. Not only is the best Disney song since the days of Beauty and the Beast, it is arguably the only Disney song that actually matters.
Best Sound Edit: Gravity. But I admit that the lack of sound makes this a tricky one.
Best Sound Mix: Inside Llewyn Davis. It was the biggest snub of the season, someone has to throw it a bone.
Best Doc Short: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life. [Former post: Not a clue]
Best Short: The Voorhman Problem. [Former post: Not a clue]
Best Animated Short: Get a Horse! Gee, I wonder what short film was connected to the most successful animated film of the year, hm... then again, Disney does not win every year.